| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 2025 | L | Western Kentucky | 24-41 | 1254.7 | +137.3 | 1392.0 | 18.9% |
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | L | UNLV | 21-38 | 1392.0 | -12.6 | 1379.4 | 24.4% |
| 3 | Sep 7 2025 | L | Hawai'i | 20-37 | 1379.4 | -46.8 | 1332.6 | 49.0% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Texas | 0-55 | 1336.9 | -49.3 | 1287.6 | 2.6% |
| 7 | Oct 2 2025 | L | New Mexico State | 10-37 | 1298.1 | -61.9 | 1236.2 | 54.7% |
| 8 | Oct 9 2025 | L | Jacksonville State | 27-29 | 1236.2 | +29.2 | 1265.4 | 16.9% |
| 9 | Oct 15 2025 | L | UTEP | 17-35 | 1265.4 | -37.8 | 1227.6 | 43.4% |
| 11 | Oct 31 2025 | L | Louisiana Tech | 14-55 | 1228.1 | -52.2 | 1175.9 | 20.7% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Oregon State | 21-17 | 1175.9 | +54.6 | 1230.5 | 14.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Delaware | 26-23 | 1230.5 | +2.8 | 1233.3 | 35.8% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Middle Tennessee | 17-31 | 1233.3 | -15.9 | 1217.4 | 49.0% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Florida International | 16-56 | 1217.4 | -43.1 | 1174.3 | 26.7% |