| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Troy | 21-24 | 1391.4 | -23.5 | 1367.9 | 24.2% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Tulsa | 17-23 | 1367.9 | -11.3 | 1356.6 | 27.2% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Nicholls | 59-0 | 1356.6 | +78.1 | 1434.7 | 85.7% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Texas Tech | 14-49 | 1434.7 | -26.1 | 1408.6 | 5.5% |
| 6 | Oct 8 2026 | L | Liberty | 3-35 | 1412.2 | -20.5 | 1391.7 | 25.7% |
| 7 | Oct 15 2026 | L | Western Kentucky | 3-16 | 1391.7 | -20.1 | 1371.6 | 48.3% |